Kiss 1.5 Celsius Goodbye. Was 2023 Our Last Year Below Key Climate Threshold?

Our climate has crossed the “dangerous” 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold generations ahead of projections.

Photo: The sun rises behind the skyline of lower Manhattan and One World Trade Center in New York City, on January 21, 2024. GARY HERSHORN / GETTY IMAGE

 

Our climate has crossed the “dangerous” 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal warming threshold 50 years or more ahead of long-held projections, according to data analysis by a major climate organization. Of the four major Earth temperature evaluations released for 2023 so far, Berkeley Earth is at 1.54°C, the European Meteorological Service is at 1.48°C, the World Meteorological Service is at 1.45°C and NASA is at 1.44°C. Almost all climate change impacts are happening decades, generations and even a century ahead of projections.

As recently as 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said we would not cross the 1.5°C threshold until after 2032. The IPCC’s 1.5°C Report in 2018 said that a constant rate of warming from the mid 2020s would see us exceed 1.5°C warming in 2040.

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